Profitable forex strategy: it is a type of instruction for the trader, which helps to follow a clearly verified algorithm and safeguard his deposit from emotional errors and consequences of the unpredictability of the Forex currency market.
Thanks to her, you will always know the answer to the question: how to act in certain market conditions. You have the conditions of opening a transaction, the conditions of its closing, likewise, you do not guess if it is time or not. You do what the trading strategy tells you. This does not mean that it cannot be changed. A healthy trading scheme in the forex market must be constantly adjusted, it must comply with the realities of current market trends, but there must be no unfounded arguments in it. >>> Forex Signals With Unbeatable Performance: Verified Forex Results And 5° Rated OnInvesting.com|Free Forex Signals Trial:CLICK HERE TO JOIN FOR FREE
Profitable Forex Strategy Reddit
Types of trading strategies The forms of a trading strategy can combine a variety of methods. However, several of the most commonly used options can be highlighted.
Trading strategy based on various complementary technical indicators
Trading strategy using Bollinger Bands
Moving Average Strategy
Technical figures and patterns
Trading with Fibonacci levels
Candlestick trading strategy
Trend trading strategy
Flat trading strategy
Fundamental analysis as the basis of the strategy
Three most profitable Forex strategies
Important!These strategies are the basis for building your own trading system.Indicator settings and recommended pending order levels are for consultation only.If you do not get a satisfactory outcome in the test result or in a live account, that does not mean that the problem is the strategy.It is enough to choose individual parameters of indicators under a separate asset and under the current market situation.
1. “Bali” scalping strategy
This strategy is one of the most popular, at least its description can be found on many websites. However, the recommendations will be different. According to the author's idea, "Bali" refers to scalping tactics, as it facilitates a fairly short stop loss (SL) and take profit (TP). However, the recommended time frame is high, because the signals appear not very often. The authors recommend using the H1 interval and the EUR / USD currency pair. Indicators used:
Linear Weighted Moving Average. Period 48 (red line).
Important!Note that the indicators for the “Bali” strategy are chosen in such a way as to ultimately give an early signal.This gives the trader time to confirm the signal and check the fundamentals.
MA is one of the basics on MT4, the other two indicators can be found in the archive for free here. To add them to the platform, click on MT4: "File / Open data directory". In the folder that opens, follow the following path: MQL4 / Indicators. Copy the flags to the folder and restart the platform. Also Read: Make Money With Trading Conditions to open a long position:
Price penetrates the orange Trend Envelopes line from the bottom up. At the same time in the same candle there is a change of the orange line that falls to a growing celestial.
The candle is above LWMA. Once the above condition has been met, we wait for the candle to appear above the moving one. It is important that it closes above the LWMA red line. It is mandatory to have a Skyline Trend Envelopes on a signal candle.
The additional DSS of momentum line on the signal candle is green and is above the dotted line of the signal (that is, it crosses or crosses it).
We open a trade at the close of the signal candle. The recommended stop level is 20-25 points in 4-digit quotes, take profit at 40-50 points. https://preview.redd.it/t48d55s8faw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1e93863745e74dec536178539817225767cbeb1c The arrow indicates a signal candle where a Trend Envelopes color change occurred. Note (purple ovals) that the blue line is below the orange line and goes upwards (in other cases the signal should be ignored). In the signal candle, the green DSS of momentum line is above the dotted line. Conditions to open a short position:
Price penetrates the Trend Envelopes sky line from top to bottom. At the same time in the same candle there is a change from the increasing celestial line to the falling orange.
The candle is below LWMA. Once the above condition has been met, we wait for the candle to appear below the mobile. It is important that it closes below the LWMA red line. It is mandatory to have an orange Trend Envelopes line on a signal candle.
The additional DSS of momentum line on the signal candle is orange and is below the dotted line of the signal (i.e. crosses or crosses it).
This profitable Forex strategy is weekly and can be used on different currency pairs. It is based on the spring principle of price movement, what went up quickly, sooner or later must fall. To trade you will only need a schedule on any platform and W1 time frame (although the daily interval can be used).
The bearish candle, which signifies last week's movement, has a relatively large body.
Open a long position early next week. Make sure to place a stop loss at 100-140 points and a take profit at 50-70 points. When it is midweek, close the order if it has not yet been closed at take profit or stop loss. After that, wait again for the beginning of the week and repeat the procedure, in any case do not open operations at the end of the current week. https://preview.redd.it/vuihnqspfaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7641e9d7701911cc255c4f0c8a53e1660c35c9fe On this chart it is clearly seen that after each large bearish candle there is necessarily a bullish candle (although smaller). The only question is what period to take where it makes sense to compare the relative length of the candles. Here everything is individual for each currency pair. Note that a rising candle was observed followed by a few small bearish candles. But when it comes to minimizing risks, it is best not to open a long response position, as the relatively small decline from the previous week may continue. Conditions to open a short position:
The bullish candle, which signifies last week's movement, has a relatively large body.
We open a short position early next week. https://preview.redd.it/tv4zmf5ufaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=61cd1dcfc4aebfa6f80343b6c51f7a6e46358602 The red arrows point to the candles that had a large body around the previous bullish candles. Almost all signals turned out to be profitable, except for the transactions indicated by a blue arrow. The shortcomings of the strategy are rare signs, albeit with a high probability of profit. The best thing is that it can be used in several pairs at the same time. This strategy has an interesting modification based on similar logic. Investors with little capital opt for intraday strategies, as their money is insufficient to exert radical pressure on the market. Therefore, if there is a strong move on the weekly chart, this may indicate a cluster of large strong traders. In other words, if there are three weekly candles in one direction, it is most likely the fourth. Here you also have to take into account the psychological factor, 4 candles is equal to one month, and those who "push" the market in one direction, within a month will begin to set profits. Strategy principle:
A "three candles" pattern (ascending and descending) formed on the weekly chart.
It is preferable that each subsequent candle was larger than the previous one. Doji is not taken into account (disembodied candles).
Stop is placed at the closing level of the first candle of the constructed formation. Take profit at 50-100% of the last candle, but it is often better to manually close the trade.
This strategy is universal and is usually given as an example for novice traders. It uses classic EMA (Exponential Moving Average) indicators for MT4 and Parabolic SAR, which acts as a confirmatory indicator. The strategy is trend. Most sources suggest using it in "minutes", but price noise reduces its efficiency. It is better to use M15-M30 intervals. Currency pairs - Any, but you may need to adjust the indicator settings. Indicators used:
EMA with periods 5, 25 and 50. EMA (5) in red, EMA (25) and EMA (50) in yellow. Apply to Close (closing price).
Red EMA (5) crosses the yellows from bottom to top.
Parabolic SAR is located under the sails.
Conditions to open a short position:
Red EMA (5) crosses the yellows from top to bottom.
Parabolic SAR is located above the candles.
The transaction can be opened on the same candle where the mobile crossover occurred. Stop loss at the local minimum, take profit at 20-25 points. But with the manual management of transactions you can extract great benefits. For example, close at the time of the transition from EMA (5) to a horizontal position (change of the angle of inclination of the growth to flat). https://preview.redd.it/4un92jlegaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=406a700c00722349622d031e20d0858e4196d18b This screen shows that all three signals (two long and one short) were effective. It would be possible to enter the market on the candle by following the signal (in order to accurately verify the direction of the trend), but you would then miss the right time to enter. It is up to you to decide whether it is worth the risk. For one-hour intervals, these parameters hardly work, so be sure to check the performance of the indicators for each period of time in a minimum span of three years. And now that you know the theory, a few words about how to put these strategies into practice. Ready? Then let's get started!
From the theory to the practice
Step 1. Open demo account It's free, requires no deposit, takes up to 15 minutes, and no verification required. On the main page of your broker there is for sures a button "Register", click and follow the instructions. An account can also be opened from other menus (for example, from the top menu, from the commercial conditions of the account, etc.). Step 2. Familiarize yourself with the functionality of the Personal Area. It won't take long. It is at the most user friendly and intuitive. You just need to understand the instruments of the platform and understand how the trades are opened. Step 3. Launch the trading platform. The Personal Area has the platform incorporated, but it is impossible to add templates. Hence, the "Bali" and "Parabolic Profit" strategies can only be executed on MT4.
Characteristics of an effective Forex strategy Reddit
And finally, let's see what makes a profitable Forex strategy effective. What properties should it have? Perhaps three of the most important characteristics can be pointed out.
The minimum number of lag indicators. The smaller they are, the greater the forecast accuracy.
Easy. Understanding your strategy is more important than your saturation with complex elements, formulas, and schematics.
Uniqueness. Any trading strategy must be "tailored" to your trading style, your character, your circumstances, and so on.
It is very important to develop your own trading strategy, but it is necessary to test a large number of already available and proven strategies. On the Forex blog you will find trading strategies available for download. Before using a live account, test your chosen strategy on the demo account on the MetaTrader trading platform. Conclusion. To successfully trade the Forex currency market, create your own trading strategy. Learn what's new, learn out-of-the-box trading schemes, and improve your individual action plan in the market. Only in this case, the trading results will satisfy you to the fullest. Success, dear readers! >>> Forex Signals With Unbeatable Performance: Verified Forex Results And 5° Rated OnInvesting.com|Free Forex Signals Trial:CLICK HERE TO JOIN FOR FREE Join the community for more articles on trading and making money on the Forex and Stock market. ------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------ Disclosure: This post contains affiliate links, if you click and make a purchase I may receive a commission - This has NO extra cost for you.
How to be profitable in Forex: High-probability trading.
Hello guys, I see a lot of posts here either of new traders or non-profitable traders. Some people here even believe trading is gambling and it is impossible to be constantly profitable. I have been trading forex for a few years now and I have fallen into every trap you could imagine: Overtrading, too many indicators, no backtesting, anger trades, etc.. burned a few accounts and finally managed to be constantly profitable on a large period of time. That is why I decided to make a very quick guide on how I think everyone can achieve profitability. High-probability trading is a very simple concept: Only take trades when stars align. I'd recommend focusing on a very few setups that have proven to be profitable, and to not trade if the setup isn't perfect. If you think there is a slight chance you could lose a trade, then do not take it. The most important rule is to have 100% confidence in your trades, so you are not disappointed when you lose one because you know you followed your guidances. I am a full-time trader. I mostly look at the 5-minutes, 15-minutes, and 1-hour charts, and I watch all major currency pairs 10 hours a day. You'd assume I take a lot of trades because so many setups form each day, well I do not. I take 2 to 3 trades a week for a duration of 1 to 4 hours per trade. But because these trades are more likely to be profitable, I have a good monthly return. Now we all have our own strategy and I'm not here to review yours. Just think of how you could make your strategy a high-probability one. If you take a trade at each trading session and you have less than 65% of winning rate, then you can certainly improve your guidances. Here are the two most important rules you must follow: - Always trade with the trend on all your timeframes, and at least a higher one. If I take a trade on the 5-minutes, 15-minutes and 1-hour charts, I want to make sure I'm with the 5-minutes, 15-minutes, 1-hour and 4-hour trends. A 200-periods exponential moving average on each timeframe should do the trick to ensure that. - Confluence. This is for me the most profitable rule of trading. Confluence is when you have two or more levels coming together and therefore making a confluence point. For example, if you are trading the retest of a bullish trendline on the 1-hour chart, a confluence point could be where the price: retests the 1-hour bull trendline, breaks the 15-minutes bear trendline, retests the 1-hour 50-period EMA, breaks the 15-minutes 50-period EMA with a bullish marubozu candlestick, with an RSI bullish divergence at an oversold level, and a retest of a support. Now this would be a crazy setup, but even when a few stars align in a confluence point the trade is high-probability. Thank you for reading.
﷽ The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people. The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets. Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.
Stock Market Crash
The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially. All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity. Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses. Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely. So, why inflate the economy so much? Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value. Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat. Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis. Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.
Economic Analysis of Bitcoin
The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero. Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology. Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value. Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block. Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer. Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed. Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public. A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved. Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely. Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.
Trading or Investing?
The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY). In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing. The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors. Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market. According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains. We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.
Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin
Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.
Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin
Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail. Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form. A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.
Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin
Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding. Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading. Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure. Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price. Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not. We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in. What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows. Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram. 1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21 2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations. The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year! Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market. Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020. The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX. Therefore, our timeline looks like:
2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
The MACD marker is one of the most famous apparatuses of Technical Analysis. This instrument shows the connection between two moving methods of a security's cost. This MACD marker is made to proclaim alters happen in course, quality and pattern length of stock's cost. There is an equation for figuring MACD, for this count 26-period exponential moving midpoints subtracted from the 12-time frame exponential moving midpoints (MACD estimation done by subtracting the long haul EMA from momentary the EMA). The outcome which comes after this figuring will be the MACD line. This MACD pointer of specialized examination depends on three parameters which named as the time consistent of the three EMAs. The parameters of MACD are estimated in days and the most normally utilized an incentive for MACD is 12, 26 and 9 days. The specialized marker of this is, MACD additionally works for discovering its period setting from the days of yore, while Technical Analysisrelies upon the consistent schedule diagrams. This MACD marker encourages financial specialists to comprehend when bullish or bearish cost development is expanding or diminishing. The MACD pointer can be comprehended in various manners, yet the most usually utilized ways are hybrids disparity and speedy ascent or fall. MACD is an energy oscillator that goes about as a best utilized in the market of exchanging, where costs of exchange advertise are moving with a certain goal in mind. MACD Charts and MACD Line MACD graphs are appeared in two lines. The primary line of graph structures the estimation of MACD and it's called as MACD Line, it shows the separation between two EMA. MACD is determined utilizing three distinctive arrangement:
The MACD arrangement is the distinction between a long and short exponential moving normal.
The Average arrangement is the EMA (Exponential moving normal) of the MACD arrangement which depicted previously.
And dissimilarity arrangement is the distinction between the MACD and the normal arrangement.
Exchanging by MACD pointer contains the accompanying signs:
In MACD lines Crossover an exchange is evolving.
MACD histogram staying over zero line shows showcase is bullish and beneath zero line shows the market is bearish.
MACD histogram flipping over the zero line invigorates affirmation of current pattern.
MACD histogram isolates from outline costs shows signs of a coming trouble.
A portion of the sign of MACD:
Signal Line Crossovers: It happens when the MACD falls beneath the sign line. Merchants regularly decipher MACD lines as a potential purchasing opportunity, when it crosses over the sign line. Brokers will in general consider the MACD line as a selling opportunity when it crosses beneath the sign line. While the signs of hybrids can be useful, on the other that they are not solid.
Centerline Crossovers: It happens when MACD crosses turn over the zero lines, at that point it unmistakable as bullishness, it's called bullish centerline hybrid. On the off chance that it moves beneath from above to the zero lines, at that point it is known as a bearish centerline hybrid. A positive hybrid guarantees when the shorter exponential moving normal of the fundamental security filtered to over the more EMA.
Divergence: Divergence structure happens when the MACD wanders through the hidden security value activity. A bullish difference structure comes when a security records a lower low and the higher low shaped by MACD. At the point when the money pair cost separates from the MACD, it demonstrates the finish of the present development. This kind of thing generally comes when value moves a single way and the MACD moves toward another path. MACD dissimilarity exchanging strategy additionally utilized for pattern affirmation as to figure defining moments of patterns.
Timing: The MACD is significant just for those conditions in which it is applied. The MACD might be applied by an Analyst before looking to an everyday schedule scale to a week by week scale, for keeping away from the momentary exchanges against the middle of the road pattern's heading.
False Signals: The MACD can likewise make bogus signs like a determining calculation. A bogus positive happens when a bullish hybrid finished a decay that comes out of nowhere in a stock. What's more, a bogus negative circumstance happens when a bearish hybrid followed by an abrupt upward in the stock. Examiners utilize a scope of techniques for sifting through the bogus signals and affirm the genuine signs.
Today, the MACD has gotten one of the most significant pointers for each broker since it shows an assortment of signs about developments, inversion and force all on a solitary diagram. The marker isn't directly consistently. Despite the fact that, when utilized cautiously, it encourages merchants who attempt to make early recognizable proof of value developments (that is the place and how the cost will be moving straightaway).
There are points of interest or hindrance of MACD: Favorable position of MACD:
MACD is a strong pointer that encourages merchants to recognize patterns of stocks.
It likewise gives a sign before moving normal hybrid.
Impediments of MACD:
The MACD pointer isn't the most confided in marker; it gives bogus signs when the forex showcase is insecure.
One more weakness of MACD is that it will in general be increasingly expressive when contrasted with investigative. Along these lines, it is progressively reasonable for tolerating the pattern of the market as opposed to evaluating it.
MACD is extremely convoluted now and again to be deciphered or actualized proficiently.
When the forex showcase is shaky, the chance of phony signs is excessively high.
Conclusion: In finish of MACD I need to state that the MACD is a magnificent blend among pattern and force pointers. It is a most ordinarily utilized marker, it very well may be effortlessly accepted as speculators are focused on the MACD hybrids by the signs and the inside line. MACD is a key pointer of Technical Analysis and it's an energy family part, gives incredible quality signs which originates from the fundamental offer cost. The utilization of the MACD marker is extremely famous in the specialized examination of Forex Market. This pointer causes brokers to recognize the pattern of the present moment forex showcase. The MACD pointer additionally has a few burdens, which demonstrates that this marker isn't generally the most trusted, and precise for guaging developments, essentially when the forex advertise is truly capricious.
In the previous article, we explained the premise of realizing the trading strategy from the aspects of the introduction of the M language , the basic grammar, the model execution method, and the model classification. In this article, we will continue the previous part, from the commonly used strategy modules and technologies. Indicators, step by step to help you achieve a viable intraday quantitative trading strategy.
Stage increase is calculating the percentage of current K line's closing price compare with previous N periods of closing price's difference. For example: Computing the latest 10 K-lines stage increases, can be written: 1234
CLOSE_0:=CLOSE; //get the current K-line's closing price, and save the results to variable CLOSE_0. CLOSE_10:=REF(CLOSE,10); //get the pervious 10 K-lines' closing price, and save the results to variable CLOSE_10 (CLOSE_0-CLOSE_10)/CLOSE_10*100;//calculating the percentage of current K line's closing price compare with previous N periods of closing price's difference.
New high price
The new high price is calculated by whether the current K line is greater than N cycles' highest price. For example: calculating whether the current K line is greater than the latest 10 K-lines' highest price, can be written: 12
HHV_10:=HHV(HIGH,10); //Get the highest price of latest 10 K-lines, which includes the current K-line. HIGH>REF(HHV_10,1); //Judge whether the current K-line's highest price is greater than pervious K-lines' HHV_10 value.
Price raise with massive trading volume increase
For example: If the current K line's closing price is 1.5 times of the closing price of the previous 10 K-lines, which means in 10 days, the price has risen 50%; and the trading volume also increased more than 5 times of the pervious 10 K-lines. can be written: 1234567
CLOSE_10:=REF(CLOSE,10); //get the 10th K-line closing price IS_CLOSE:=CLOSE/CLOSE_10>1.5; //Judging whether the current K Line closing price is 1.5 times greater than the value of CLOSE_10 VOL_MA_10:=MA(VOL,10); //get the latest 10 K-lines' average trading volume IS_VOL:=VOL>VOL_MA_10*5; //Judging whether the current K-line's trading volume is 5 times greater than the value of VOL_MA_10 IS_CLOSE AND IS_VOL; //Judging whether the condition of IS_CLOSE and IS_VOL are both true.
Price narrow-shock market
Narrow-shock market means that the price is maintained within a certain range in the recent period. For example: If the highest price in 10 cycles minus the lowest price in 10 cycles, the result divided by the current K-line's closing price is less than 0.05. can be written: 1234
HHV_10:=HHV(CLOSE,10); //Get the highest price in 10 cycles(including current K-line) LLV_10:=LLV(CLOSE,10); //Get the lowest price in 10 cycles(including current K-line) (HHV_10-LLV_10)/CLOSE<0.05; //Judging whether the difference between HHV_10 and LLV_10 divided by current k-line's closing price is less than 0.05.
Moving average indicates bull market
Moving Average indicates long and short direction, K line supported by or resisted by 5，10，20，30，60 moving average line, Moving average indicates bull market or bear market. can be written: 123456
MA_5:=MA(CLOSE,5); //get the moving average of 5 cycle closing price. MA_10:=MA(CLOSE,10);//get the moving average of 10 cycle closing price. MA_20:=MA(CLOSE,20);//get the moving average of 20 cycle closing price. MA_30:=MA(CLOSE,30);//get the moving average of 30 cycle closing price. MA_5>MA_10 AND MA_10>MA_20 AND MA_20>MA_30; //determine wether the MA_5 is greater than MA_10, and MA_10 is greater than MA_20, and MA_20 is greater than MA_30.
Previous high price and its locations
To obtain the location of the previous high price and its location, you can use FMZ Quant API directly. can be written: 123
HHV_20:=HHV(HIGH,20); //get the highest price of 20 cycle(including current K line) HHVBARS_20:=HHVBARS(HIGH,20); //get the number of cycles from the highest price in 20 cycles to current K line HHV_60_40:REF(HHV_20,40); //get the highest price between 60 cycles and 40 cycles.
Price gap jumping
The price gap is the case where the highest and lowest prices of the two K lines are not connected. It consists of two K lines, and the price gap is the reference price of the support and pressure points in the future price movement. When a price gap occurs, it can be assumed that an acceleration along the trend with original direction has begun. can be written: 12345678
HHV_1:=REF(H,1); //get the pervious K line's highest price LLV_1:=REF(L,1); //get the pervious K line's lowest price HH:=L>HHV_1; //judging wether the current K line's lowest price is greater than pervious K line's highest price (jump up) LL:=H1.001; //adding additional condition, the bigger of the price gap, the stronger the signal (jump up) LLL:=H/REF(L.1)<0.999; //adding additional condition, the bigger of the price gap, the stronger the signal (jump down) JUMP_UP:HH AND HHH; //judging the overall condition, whether it is a jump up JUMP_DOWN:LL AND LLL; //judging the overall condition, whether it is a jump down
Common technical indicators
Moving average https://preview.redd.it/np9qgn3ywxs41.png?width=811&format=png&auto=webp&s=39a401b5c9498a13d953678c0c452b3b8f6cbe2c From a statistical point of view, the moving average is the arithmetic average of the daily price, which is a trending price trajectory. The moving average system is a common technical tool used by most analysts. From a technical point of view, it is a factor that affects the psychological price of technical analysts. The decision-making factor of thinking trading is a good reference tool for technical analysts. The FMZ Quant tool supports many different types of moving averages, as shown below: 1234567
MA_DEMO:MA(CLOSE,5); // get the moving average of 5 cycle MA_DEMO:EMA(CLOSE,15); // get the smooth moving average of 15 cycle MA_DEMO:EMA2(CLOSE,10);// get the linear weighted moving average of 10 cycle MA_DEMO:EMAWH(CLOSE,50); // get the exponentially weighted moving average of 50 cycle MA_DEMO:DMA(CLOSE,100); // get the dynamic moving average of 100 cycle MA_DEMO:SMA(CLOSE,10,3); // get the fixed weight of 3 moving average of closing price in 10 cycle MA_DEMO:ADMA(CLOSE,9,2,30); // get the fast-line 2 and slow-line 30 Kaufman moving average of closing price in 9 cycle.
https://preview.redd.it/mm0lkv00xxs41.png?width=1543&format=png&auto=webp&s=a87bdb4feecf97cbeef423b935860bfea85ffe6d Bollinger bands is also based on the statistical principle. The middle rail is calculated according to the N-day moving average, and the upper and lower rails are calculated according to the standard deviation. When the BOLL channel starts changing from wide to narrow, which means the price will gradually returns to the mean. When the BOLL channel is changing from narrow to wide, it means that the market will start to change. If the price is up cross the upper rail, it means that the buying power is enhanced. If the price down cross the lower rail, it indicates that the selling power is enhanced. Among all the technical indicators, Bollinger Bands calculation method is one of the most complicated, which introduces the concept of standard deviation in statistics, involving the middle trajectory ( MB ), the upper trajectory ( UP ) and the lower trajectory ( DN ). luckily, you don't have to know the calculation details, you can use it directly on FMZ Quant platform as follows: 1234
MID:MA(CLOSE,100); //calculating moving average of 100 cycle, call it Bollinger Bands middle trajectory TMP2:=STD(CLOSE,100); //calculating standard deviation of closing price of 100 cycle. TOP:MID+2*TMP2; //calculating middle trajectory plus 2 times of standard deviation, call it upper trajectory BOTTOM:MID-2*TMP2; //calculating middle trajectory plus 2 times of standard deviation, call it lower trajectory
https://preview.redd.it/9p3k7y42xxs41.png?width=630&format=png&auto=webp&s=b1b8078325fc142c1563a1cf1cc0f222a13e0bde The MACD indicator is a double smoothing operation using fast (short-term) and slow (long-term) moving averages and their aggregation and separation. The MACD developed according to the principle of moving averages removes the defect that the moving average frequently emits false signals, and also retains the effect of the other good aspect. Therefore, the MACD indicator has the trend and stability of the moving average. It was used to study the timing of buying and selling stocks and predicts stock price change. You can use it as follows:
DIFF:EMA(CLOSE,10)-EMA(CLOSE,50); //First calculating the difference between short-term moving average and long-term moving average. DEA:EMA(DIFF,10); //Then calculating average of the difference.
The above is the commonly used strategy module in the development of quantitative trading strategies. In addition, there are far more than that. Through the above module examples, you can also implement several trading modules that you use most frequently in subjective trading. The methods are the same. Next, we began to write a viable intraday trading strategy.
In the Forex spot market, there is a wellknown strategy called HANS123. Its logic are basically judging wether the price breaks through the highest or lowest price of the number of K lines after the market opening
Ready to enter the market after 30 minutes of opening;
Upper rail = 30 minutes high after opening ;
Lower rail = 30 minutes low after opening ;
When the price breaks above the upper limit, buy and open the position;
When the price falls below the lower rail, the seller opens the position.
Intraday trading strategy, closing before closing;
// Data Calculation Q:=BARSLAST(DATA<>REF(DATA,1))+1; //Calculating the number of period from the first K line of the current trading day to current k line, and assign the results to N HH:=VALUEWHEN(TIME=0930,HHV(H,Q)); //when time is 9:30, get the highest price of N cycles, and assign the results to HH LL:=VALUEWHEN(TIME=0930,LLV(L,Q)); //When time is 9:30, get the lowest price of N cycles, and assign the results to LL //Placing Orders TIME>0930 AND TIME<1445 AND C>HH,BK; //If the time is greater than 9:30 and lesser than 14:45, and the closing price is greater than HH, opening long position. TIME>0930 AND TIME<1445 AND C=1445,CLOSEOUT; //If the time is greater or equal to 14:45, close all position. //Filtering the signals AUTOFILTER; //opening the filtering the signals mechanism
To sum up
Above we have learned the concept of the strategy module. Through several commonly used strategy module cases, we had a general idea of the FMZ Quant programming tools, it can be said that learning to write strategy modules and improve programming logic thinking is a key step in advanced quantitative trading. Finally, we used the FMZ Quant tool to implement the trading strategy according a classical Forex trading strategy.
Next section notice
Maybe there are still some confusion for some people, mainly because of the coding part. Don't worry, we have already thought of that for you. On the FMZ Quant platform, there is another even easier programming tool for beginners. It is the visual programming, let's learn it soon!
[WallText] For those who really want to be forex traders.
Im sry if u find some grammatical errors, english is not my mother language. Let me know and i will fix it. First of all, look for at least half an hour without interruptions to read this manual. This is the system that has created trading professionals. He has done it and today he continues doing it, as it happened with me. It is not a system written in any forum, in fact I believe that it has been the first to collect all the ideas and create a structure to follow to carry them out, but these same ideas and procedures have been the ones that the winning traders have used during decades and will continue to use, since they are based on completely objective and real foundations. Let's go to it: Hi all. It is known that the observation time makes the patterns elucidate, and after some time in the forum and throughout this trading world I have found many patterns in the responses of the people, I have reasoned about them, and I have realized their failures, why they fail to be profitable. There are people who have put effort into this. Not all, but there are people who have really read a lot, studied a lot, learned a lot and tried a lot, and even then they are not able to achieve stable profitability. The question is: Is there enough in that effort? Is there a specific moment in the line of learning where you start to be profitable? The question is, logically. There are traders that generate constant profitability. Hedge funds, investment firms ... and the difference is in areas where people for some reason do not want to invest time. Why are there more messages in the strategy forums than in the psychology, journals and fundamental analysis together? As human beings, our brain is programmed to look for quick positive responses. In nature, the brain does not understand the concept of long-term investment. There is only a short-term investment made from the difference between what we think will cost us something and what we think it will contribute. If we think that it will cost us more than it can give us, we simply do not feel motivated. It is a simple mechanism. The market plays with these mechanisms. There are more scalpers created from the search for that positive emotion than from the search for a scalping system. In short, we are not programmed to operate, and there lies the fact that only a huge minority of operators are profitable. Among others, I have observed several patterns of behavior that make a trader fail, and they are: - Search for immediate pleasure: The trader wants to feel that he has won on the one hand, and on the other he wants to avoid the feeling of loss. Following this there are many traders who place a very low take profit and a very high stop loss. This is not bad if the probabilities have been reviewed before, the mathematical factor of hope, the relation with the drawdown .. but in the majority of the cases absolutely nothing of statistics is known. There is only that need to win. They win, they win, they win, until one day the odds do their job and the stop loss is touched, returning the account to its origins or leaving it with less money than it started. This does not work. - Search for immediate wealth: Again it is something immediate. People want good emotions, and we want them already. The vast majority of traders approach this world with fantasies of wealth, women and expensive cars, but do not visualize hard work, the sickly hard work behind all this. From there underlie behaviors like eternally looking for new robots or expert advisors that promise a lot of money, or new systems. The type of trader that has this integrated pattern is characterized by doing nothing more than that. Spend the day looking for new strategies Of course he never manages to earn constant money. - Think that trading is easy: Trading is not easy, it is simple. Why? Because when you get the wisdom and experience necessary to find yourself in a state of superior knowledge about the market and effectively make money, it is very simple; you just have to apply the same equation again and again. However, it is not easy to reach this equation. This equation includes variables such as risk understanding, mathematics, certain characteristics in the personality that must be assimilated little by little, intelligence, a lot of experience .. This is not easy. This is a business, and in fact it is one of the most difficult businesses in the world. It may seem simple to see a series of candles on a screen or perhaps a line, or any type of graphic, but it is not. Behind the screen there are hundreds of thousands of very intelligent professionals, very disciplined, very educated, very ... This business is the most profitable in the world if you know how to carry, since it is based on the concept of compound interest, but it is also one of the most difficult. And I repeat. It's a business, not a game. I think you'll never hear a lawyer say to his boss: "We're going to focus all our time on finding a strategy that ALWAYS makes us win a trial, ALWAYS." What does it sound ridiculous? It sounds to me just as ridiculous for trading. But you are not to blame, you have been subconsciously deceived through the advertising brokers and your own internal desires, to think that this is something easy. - Lack of discipline: Trading is not something you can do 10 minutes on Monday and 6 on Thursday. This is not a game, and until you get a regular schedule you can not start earning money. There are people who open a graph one day for 5 minutes, then return to their normal life and then one week returns to look at it for other minutes. Trading should not be treated as a hobby. If you want to win "some money" I advise you not even to get in, because you will end up losing something or a lot of money. You have to think if you really want trading to be part of your life. It's like when you meet a girl and you want to get married. Do you really want to get into this with all the consequences? Because otherwise it will not work. Visualize the hard work behind this. Candle nights, frustrations, several hundred dollars lost (at the beginning) .. enter the world of trading with a really deep reason, if you lose a time and money that no one will return, and both things are finite! - Know something and pretend to know everything: Making money in the markets is not based on painting the graph as a child a paper with crayon wax and pretend to make money. It is not based on drawing lines or circles, or squares. It is based on understanding the operation of all these tools, the background of the why of the tools of trading. A trend line only marks the cycle of a wave within a longer time frame, within a longer time frame, and so on indefinitely. In turn, this wave is divided into waves with a specific behavior, divided into smaller waves and Etcetera, and understanding that dynamic is fundamental to winning. It is not the fact of drawing a line. That can be done by an 8 year old boy. It is the fact of UNDERSTANDING why. There are traders who read two technical analysis books and a delta analysis book and believe that they are professionals, but do they really understand the behavior of the market? The answer is in their portfolios. After this explanation that only 10% will have read, I will try to detail step by step something that is 90% yearning, and that will have quickly turned the scroll of your mouse to find the solution to all your problems while supporting the beer in a book of " become rich ", rotten by lack of use. These steps must be carried out one by one, starting with the first, fulfilling it, moving on to the second, successively and growing. If steps are taken for granted, or not fully met, it simply will not work. I know this will happen and the person who did it will think "Bah, this does not work." and you will return to your top strategy search routine. That said, let start: 1º Create a REAL account with 50 dollars approximately: _ Forget the demo accounts. They are a utopia, they do not work. There is infinite liquidity, without emotions and without slipagge. These things will change when we enter the real market, and the most experienced person in the world will notice a sharp drop in their profitability when it happens to real accounts. And not only using a demo account has disadvantages, but using a real one has advantages. We will have a real slipagge with real liquidity. Real requotes and more. The most important: We will work our emotions at the same time. Because yes, we will lose or win a couple of cents, but that has a subconscious impact of loss. This means that we will begin to expand our comfort zone from the start. Using a demo account is simply a disadvantage. 2º Buy a newspaper in the stationery or in Chinese (optional), or write one online or in Word: A newspaper will be of GREAT help. You can not imagine, for those of you who do not have one, how a newspaper can exponentiate our learning curve. It is simply absurd not to have a diary. It's like taking a ticket of 5 instead of one of 100. In this diary we will write down observations that we make about the operations that we will carry out in points that I will explain later of this same manual. We will divide the newspaper into 2 parts:
1 part: The operation itself. We will write the reasons for each operation. The why we have done it.
2 part: How we feel. We will unburden ourselves without explaining how we feel, what our intuition tells us about that particular operation and so on.
How to use: We will read the newspaper once a week, thinking about the emotions we felt each day and in what situations, and the reasons. Soon, we will begin to realize that we have certain patterns in the way we feel and operate, and we will have the ability to change them. We can also learn from mistakes that we make, and keep them always in a diary. 3º Look for a strategy that has the following characteristics:
Make it SIMPLE. Nothing of 4 or more indicators or the colors of the gay flag drawn on the graph based on 1000 lines. Why? Because there is always an initial enthusiasm and maybe we can follow a complex strategy for a week, but burned that motivation, saturates us and we will leave it aside.
Therefore, the strategy must be simple. If we use metatrader, the default indicators work. No macd's no-lag and similar tools. That does not lead anywhere. And if you do not believe it, I'll tell you that in all areas of life comes marketing. In addition to trading towards MMA and now I do powerlifts, and there are 1000 exercises to do. However, the classics are still working and work very well. It seems that sellers of strange sports equipment do not share the same opinion, that the only thing they want is to sell! 4º Understand the strategy:
We must gut each process of the strategy and reason about it. What does this indicator do? What does this process? Why this and not another? Why this exit ?. Some strategies will be based on unspecified outputs. This does not suppose any problem because as we get experience in that specific strategy, we will remember situations that have occurred, we will see situations that are repeated (patterns) and we will be able to find better starts and entrances. Everything is in our hands.
5° Collect essential statistical information:
This part is FUNDAMENTAL, and no operator can have as much security in itself when operating as if it uses a strategy that has at least positive mathematical hope and an acceptable drawdown.
Step 1: To carry out this collection of information you need to test the strategy for at least 100 signals. Yes, 100 signals.
Assuming it is an intraday strategy and we do an operation per day, it will take us 100 days (3 months and 10 days approx) to carry out the study. Logically these figures can change depending on the number of operations that we make up to date with the strategy. I have no doubt that after reading this manual we will go for a quick strategy of scalpers, with 100 signals every 10 minutes where the seller comes out with a big smile in his promotional video. I personally recommend a system of maximum 2 daily operations to start, but this point is personal. Is it a long time? Go! It turns out that a college student of average intelligence takes 6 years to finish a career. It takes 6 years just to train, and there are even more races. This does not guarantee any profitability, and in any case most of Sometimes it will get a static return and not based on compound interest. I can never aspire to more. The market offers compound profitability, there will be no bosses, nor schedules that we do not impose. We will always have work, and we can earn a lot more money than most people with careers or masters. Is it a long time? I do not think so. As I was saying, we will test the strategy 100 times with our REAL account that we created in step 1. Did you decide to use a demo account? Better look for another manual; This has to be something serious. They are 100 dollars and will be the best investment of all in your career as a trader.
Step 2: Once with the report of the 100 strategies in hand, we will collect the following information:
How many times have we won and how many lost. Afterwards, we will find the percentage of correct answers.
How much have we won and how much have we lost? Afterwards, we will find the average profit and the average loss.
Step 3: With this information we will complete the mathematical hope formula:
(1 + average profit / average loss) * (percentage of correct answers / 100) -1 Example:
Of the 100 operations there are 50 winners and 50 losers, then the success rate is 50%.
Our average profit is 20 dollars and our average loss is 10 dollars.
Filling the formula: (1 + 20/10) * (50/100) -1 (1 + 2) * (0,5) -1 3 * 0.5 - 1 1,5 - 1 = 0,5 In this example the mathematical expectation is 0.5. It is POSITIVE, because it is greater than 0. From 0, we will know that this strategy will make us earn money over time ALWAYS we respect the strategy. If after a few days we modify it, then we will have to find this equation again with another 100 different operations. Easy? A result of "0" would mean that this strategy does not win or lose, but in the long run we would LOSE due to the spread and other random factors. You have to try to find a strategy that, once this study is done, the result of your mathematical hope is greater than 0.2 as MINIMUM. Finding this formula will also give a curious fact. The greater the take profit in relation to the stop loss, as a general rule more positive will be our mathematical hope. This has given many pages of discursiones about whether to place take profit> stop loss or vice versa. If our stop was larger than the take profit, then the other ratio (% earned /% lost) should be yes or yes positive. But this is just curiosities. let's keep going:
6° Expand our comfort zone:
We will not be able to work with operations of 10 million dollars overnight, but we can progressively condition ourselves to that path. Assuming all of the above, and with a real account, some experience in the 3 months of information gathering and a positive mathematical hope, we are ready to operate in real with some consistency. But how to carry it out? The comfort zone is the psychological limits we have before feeling fear or emotional tension. When we get into a fight, we have left our comfort zone and we feel tension, unless we have a psychopathic disorder. Every time we lean out onto a 300-meter balcony from a skyscraper, we move away from the comfort zone. Every time we speak to a depampanante woman, we move away from our comfort zone. Our brain creates a comfort zone to differentiate what we usually do and is not substantially dangerous, from the unknown and potentially dangerous to our survival or reproduction. And whenever the brain interprets that these two aspects are in danger, we will feel negative emotions like fear, disgust, loneliness, fury, etcetera. This topic is much more profound and you would have to read several volumes of evolutionism to understand the why of each thing. The only thing that interests us here is the "what", and the one, that is, that there is a certain comfort zone that must be expanded without any problems. With trading, exactly the same thing happens. The forex market is a virtual environment in which we lose or gain things, but our brain does not differentiate between reality and what is not, it only attends to stimuli of a certain type. We can lose food in the middle of the forest or also a crude oil operation. Our goal is to condition our subconscious so that it is progressively accepting lost and small benefits, and as time goes by, bigger. The exercise to achieve this is the following:
We will operate on that account of 100 dollars with our mathematically positive strategy for 3 more months.
After these three months, our account should have benefits, because of the mathematically positive strategy.
We will enter 200 dollars more and we will operate a month more raising the lots according to our risk management (I do not advise that the risk is greater than 2%)
At this point, I know how hard it is to resign myself to impatience, but follow those times and do not skip it even if you feel safe, but you will fail, it's simple. Let's keep going:
After that month, we will raise our capital again with a new income. This time we will enter 1000 dollars (save if you do not have 1000 dollars loose, you will recover later on, do you want to make money, enter 1000 dollars.
We will test the operation one month with this new injection. We probably notice difficulties. More blockages, more euphoria when winning ... how will we know when to move on to the next entry? When we do not feel ANYTHING or at most something very shallow, when win or lose If observing the wall and operating is for you the same from an emotional point of view, it is time to enter more money.
We will follow this procedure until we have a basic account of 21000 dollars. The amounts to be paid will depend on our ability to not feel emotions, a capacity that will be taking over time.
We will raise capital until we feel that we block too much. In that case we will drawdown to a more acceptable amount, and we will continue at that level until get discipline and lack of reactivity at that level. Later, we will go up.
If we want to earn more money, we will continue entering and entering. Always following the conditioning scheme of 1 month.
Why a month? A study conducted in the United States revealed that the subconscious needs an average of 28 days to create new habits or eliminate old habits. Emotional reactions are part of the habits. If we maintain some pressure of any emotion during the opportune time, in this case 28 days, will create tolerance and the subconscious will need a more intense version of the stimulus to activate. AND THAT'S ALL! Follow these steps and you will triumph. Here is the golden chalice, the tomb of Jesus or whatever you want to call it. There is no more mystery in the world of trading. This system will accompany you during the next year, year and a half. It's the one I used and it WORKS. Once done, you will have a very profitable system integrated into your being, since not only will it be mathematically viable, but you will also have the necessary experience to make it infinitely more profitable yet. In addition, you will have psychology fully worked on a professional level to have conditioned your subconscious gradually. Happy trading to all of u guys.-
Slightly different flavour here, which I hope will be insightful to those who take the time to read. Tonight I'm going to talk about my learnings in this market so far; my biggest mistakes; how you can avoid making them yourself; and the strategy I intend to follow from now on. It’s a long old read, but it contains months worth of knowledge, which could only be gained from first-hand experience. So pour yourself a drink, settle in, and let me take you through a brief history of my first two months in crypto.
TL;DR: Been in crypto 2 months, after years trading forex. Learnt a lot, and passing on the knowledge. Hope it helps some of you to become better investors.
CHAPTER 1: New market; new opportunity
I came into crypto with a real excitement. Finally a market that resonates with me. The ability to buy into something I believe in - something that could change the world for the better - and to make money along the way. I was excited that I could apply my trading background, something that not many in the market possess, to my advantage. I was excited at the prospect of being on the curve of early adoption, in a market that had demonstrably meteoric potential. But I was patient. I knew that I would be risking a substantial amount of money in this space, and potentially other peoples’ too, so I had to approach it sensibly. I was going to invest (hold long-term) the vast majority and day trade just a small portion. I spent many weeks researching before considering pulling the trigger even once. I didn’t come into this without a plan. But looking back on it now, it really was only scratching the surface on what a serious investment strategy should be.
CHAPTER 2: Early Strategy
In brief, my plan was to research a load of coins that I’d heard have good potential – solid projects which make unique & warranted use of blockchain technology; are disruptive to their industry; are developed by a competent & active team; and are backed by a loyal community. I shortlisted maybe 40 coins through articles, videos and general conversation, and I added them to my watchlist. Admittedly I became a bit lax in completing the deep level of research I told myself I’d do for each – scrutinizing the whitepaper became skimming the whitepaper, which then became watching a video analysis, which then became “oh that sounds interesting I’ll keep an eye on it”. But this was just a watchlist. And still an educated one.
I knew that I wanted to wait for an inevitable dip in Bitcoin’s value to enter the market, but it just wasn’t coming. $6k, $8k, $10k… the bullish momentum couldn’t be tamed. Was I missing out? Was Bitcoin going to continue its parabolic move while I sit here waiting for a dip that could never come?
LEARNING 1: There are an unlimited number of opportunities
At this stage I was ready to get involved, and I’d scouted a few alt coins that had good technical entry points approaching. Do I need to keep waiting for a good Bitcoin price even when there’s a good alt price? In short, if you’re confident enough about a trade, it doesn’t really matter what price you pay to get the BTC (or other major alt coin) needed to trade it, as long as you believe that your trade will outweigh any potential drop in Bitcoin’s value. If your trade goes up 100% and BTC’s value drops 50%, at that point you’re break even. Plus if you keep holding and BTC returns back to its previous value, now you’re in 100% profit. For me this meant that even after buying some Bitcoin at its ATH (all-time high) and having it correct over 40%, I was still in profit, because this particular trade was up over 100%. More on this later.
So I bought some Bitcoin! Not all at once – generally a decent strategy is called dollar-cost averaging. In essence, buying a little bit every week at whatever the price at the time is, so that your entry price averages out over time. A better strategy is to only buy if it’s at a good price, or when you need it for a trade setup – not just arbitrarily every week even if the price is high. But I digress, I had some Bitcoin now and I wanted to diversify. Time to buy some alts.
LEARNING 2: Every trade is a decision to have the coin you’re buying instead of the coin you’re using to buy it
If an alt coin is gaining value against Bitcoin, it’s better to be holding that alt coin than Bitcoin. And if it’s losing value against Bitcoin, you’d be better off keeping it as BTC. Simple, but easy to forget when you load up Coinmarketcap and see all of the price changes in USD. You’ve gone up by 4% today – great! But BTC went up 10%, so you’d have been better off holding BTC. Buying a coin is an active decision that you make to hold the coin you’re buying instead of the coin you’re selling for it, for the period of time until you close that position. So if I buy 1000 XEM using BTC, that XEM/BTC trade is me saying “I think that XEM will increase in value at a greater rate than BTC will”. If both of them increase in value but BTC does it faster, that was a sub-optimal decision.
LEARNING 3: Satoshis are your friend. Accumulate as many of them as possible
So how does one measure profit on a trade? It’s intuitive to think of it in fiat terms – how many £££ did I make? Something tangible. But really everything should be measured in the smallest unit of Bitcoin (1 satoshi = 0.00000001 BTC). It’s easier to migrate to this way of thinking if you think of your total investment as the total amount of BTC (or the other major alt coin) that you were able to buy with it. Say I invested £1000 in crypto, and with that I managed to buy 0.1 BTC – that’s my total investment. If I want to diversify and put 10% of that into each of my favourite alt coins, I’d buy 0.01 BTC worth of each of them. Let’s say Litecoin was one of them and I got 1 LTC for my 0.01 BTC. Litecoin’s rocket then fuelled up and started on its journey to the moon, and I decide to bank my profit. I now trade it back for 0.015 BTC. From 0.01 BTC to 0.015 BTC is a profit of 0.005 BTC, or 500,000 satoshis!
“But why not just measure it in £££ - that’s far less complicated?!”
Well here’s the kicker. Let’s say Bitcoin’s value plummeted over the course of that trade. I’ve got more BTC, but because the value of each one decreased, I may still have lost money. So does that mean that trade was a bad decision? Not at all. That trade was a decision between BTC and LTC, and you made the right call. LTC held its value better than BTC did, so you would have lost more if you didn’t take the trade. Profit measured in satoshis allows you to strip away the financial layer and answer the most important question – “was it a good decision to make that trade?” A gain in satoshis is always a win. A gain in £££ is not.
Taking that same scenario in which I’ve got an equal amount of my 10 favourite alt coins. Let’s say 9 out of 10 of them stay at exactly the same value, but the other one shoots to the moon on a lambo all the way to 100%. Woohoo! Shame that was only 1/10 of my portfolio - overall it’s worth 10% more now – but if I’d have invested all my money in that one coin I’d be up 100% overall. Now I’m certainly not advocating putting all your eggs in one basket. Rather, in reference to my previous learning, this helped me realised another very important point.
LEARNING 4: Understanding opportunity cost is a must
Any trade I make is not only a decision between the two coins I’m trading; it’s also a decision to buy that coin instead of any of the other coins I might be interested in. I have 0.1 BTC to spend and 10 alts I want to spend it on – should I just divide it equally? Not necessarily. If you’re super confident about a couple of them, but not so much on the others, spreading it equally doesn’t sound like such a good plan after all does it? Take your time analysing each trade / investment and rank them in order of confidence. In order of potential (risk:reward if you’re a trader). Invest more in the ones you’re more confident in. It’s a really basic point, but one that’s so often forgotten when there are so many exciting prospects out there. Holding a particular coin doesn’t just cost the price that you paid for it, it costs the opportunity to buy something else instead. One of the first things I learnt in trading was to cut your losers short and let your winners run. Why should crypto be any different? Even when you’re in a trade, every moment is an active decision to keep holding it instead of trading it for something else. Don’t blindly HODL hoping for a bad decision to improve, when there are better decisions you can take to re-coup that loss. Equally, don’t sell for a loss just because the value goes down. Re-analyse. Has anything changed? If every reason you had to buy it in the first place still applies, HODL. If something’s changed, including your confidence in it compared to other cryptos, consider switching it for a better opportunity.
So I learnt all of this in my first month – December 2017. Did I make optimal decisions all the time? Absolutely not, but with cryptos riding to all-time highs, my investors were very happy, as was I. It’s not often that you can get a 100% return on investment in just one month in a market. But it’s easy to profit in a bull market.
CHAPTER 3: It’s not all sunshine and lambos
It was around the end of December in which things started to get a bit too parabolic, and I was naturally suspicious of how long this could last. But you find yourself, inexperienced in a new market, eager to see how far you can ride the wave. The fear of missing out on further exponential gains becomes as much of a psychological challenge as taking a loss. In short, you get greedy. Highs that I had once been ecstatic with, a few days later became lows. I told my investors not to expect anything like this in future months. In my monthly summary I said “we are in perhaps the most bullish market the world has ever seen”, and I estimated that we had “a maximum of 1-2 more weeks to ride this momentum”. Prophetic, no? Well it’s easy to make predictions that come true – even a broken clock is right twice a day. What’s difficult is having enough conviction to take your own advice.
LEARNING 5: Make your rules and stick to them, no matter what
This is without a doubt the biggest thing I’ve learnt over the months. If one day you set yourself a target of £X profit – a level you’d be really happy to achieve, be that on a trade or overall – take it. Cash out as soon as you reach it and buy yourself something nice. Make it tangible. It’s easy for the world of online trading to feel gamified, but remember what you’re staking – this is real money. But it’s easier said than done. If you rise suddenly to that target I can tell you your first thought will be “whoa look at it go, I’m gonna see how much further it can get before I cash in”, rather than “mission accomplished, time to get out”. Humans are greedy. We want to take shortcuts – to our dreams, to wealth – but this isn’t a get rich quick scheme. If someone told you they could get you 10%/month gain on your savings (that triples your money every year) you’d probably bite their hand off. So why in crypto would you not be chuffed with 50%, or 20%, or 10%? Don’t move the goalposts. Decide in advance when to take profit and take it.
First off, it’s always a good idea to take out your initial investment at a level after which you’d be psychologically happy if the market goes down or up. For example, if I took out my initial investment (say £1000) when it went up 50% to £1500, and then the market went lunar and doubled the next month, I’d personally feel a bit annoyed at myself for not leaving more money in. That £1000 would’ve been £3000 had I kept it invested…shit. However if I took out my initial investment when it went up 200% - I’d now have £2000 left of my £3000 investment, and if it doubled the next month, I’d be happy with the stake I had remaining, not regretting my decision. That level can only be decided by you, based on your attitude towards risk. Obviously the higher that value is before you cash out your profits, the greater the risk you’re taking since it may never reach that level. Taking out your investment as soon as you’re happy to is a good move because from then on in you’re riding on pure profits. If the market were to crash to zero, you’d still be break even, so it’s much easier to detach yourself from the emotions involved (and we all know how emotional this market is). And if you’re a technical trader, rejoice at the fact that this market is hugely technical, and you can very often predict good levels to get out at – often doubled with buying back in cheaper. I highly recommend for everyone to spend some time learning to analyse charts - even at a basic level. It works. And for heaven's sake if you're day trading don't do what I did and "neglect" to apply basic trading principles like setting a stop loss and sizing each position at maximum ~1% risk. You can call it investing; you can call it speculative buying; but at the end of the day that's just gambling. Don't be lazy. Don't be wreckless. Apply what you've learnt in other markets - crypto is no different.
And for context, no I did not take my own advice. The correction shocked me. Not the fact that it happened, but the fact that it happened so hard and fast. At first I thought it was a healthy dip, and that the uptrend would resume soon enough – no reason to sell. But then the bears took over, and we were in a full on downwards movement. News emerged from South East Asia which caused a great deal of negative sentiment, and Bitcoin’s value tumbled (even when some of the speculation was later deemed invalid), and with that I realised how inherently linked to Bitcoin that all other cryptocurrencies are. You may dislike Bitcoin - the slow transactions; the high fees – but you can’t argue how critically important it is to this market.
LEARNING 6: 40+% market corrections are normal in crypto, but they still hurt
I neglected to mention earlier, but I have a background in trading forex. I understand market patterns, cyclicity and technical analysis such as Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonacci ratios. It is foolish to think that charts will continue indefinitely in a given direction – there will always be corrections and reversals. All through the correction we’ve started this year with, I have remained very optimistic. Nothing at all has changed to make any of the leading crypto projects less credible or via as future industry disruptors. This is why it’s important to do your own research on coins you invest in – so that you’re psychologically happy holding them long term through price corrections. But I’ll be honest, when Bitcoin broke down through several technical support levels a few days ago, I became apprehensive. Not even close to panic, or tempted to sell. After all I am investing long term, and I still see this as a requisite correction in a much larger up-trend. Or at least the upside potential of that outcome is comfortably worth the risk for me – it’s the opportunity of a lifetime. But even as an experienced trader, doubts can set in. All of the profits I had gained in month 1 were gone, and I have now slightly dipped into loss. As I say, I’m not selling, and my analysis is still very bullish. But HODLing is not always the best strategy.
LEARNING 7: When things are looking bearish, consider the trade to fiat
With the benefit of hindsight, and now having dedicated substantially more time to learning Elliot Wave Theory and studying crypto charts, there were a number of points at which you could have predicted a big ol’ correction was on the cards, before it fully developed. A quick ‘n dirty rule of thumb, for those of you who don’t know how to read charts, is: “Don’t buy into a parabolic market or at an all-time high – it’ll likely correct soon”. But I’d also like to add an addendum to what is a common mantra in the crypto community: “Buy the dip” – this is for day trading. If you’re intending to hold a coin long term, zoom right out and look at the entire coin’s price history. Wait for a macro scale correction, not a micro scale dip. A lot of people got excited the other day at Bitcoin rising 10% - I saw tonnes of calls saying “the correction is over” or “Bitcoin to the moon” – but when you zoom out, we’re still in a downtrend with room to go lower, and substantial resistance to get through before we can rise to new highs. Play the long game and look for long-term signals. And if you are in that subset of people who can predict an imminent correction, or indeed if you’re halfway through a correction with a good chance of it continuing, the best decision may well be to get out of the market until it’s over. Trade your positions back to fiat, and wait for clear recovery to the upside. It’s much more difficult to trade profitably in a down-trend. Most of us could have doubled our BTC holdings just by getting out of crypto before the correction and buying back in cheaper now. So make sure you have an exit plan. Know the steps that you’d need to take to get your money off exchanges / wallets and back into your bank account. Getting out of crypto doesn’t have to be a permanent move. There’s no harm in waiting things out until you’re confident again. After all, refer back to Learning 1 – there are always more opportunities.
CHAPTER 4: Moving forwards
At last, filled with learnings and plenty of inactive time spent refining my strategy, I’ve gone back to my technical analysis roots and really analysed why I’m in my positions.
LEARNING 8: Never stop analysing. You will make mistakes. Learn from them.
Does my portfolio need to be this diverse? Are my invested amounts proportional to my confidence in them? Probably not, so I’ve taken this opportunity to start shifting around. Don’t be precious about losses – losing is a natural part of trading – you only need one 10:1 winning trade to offset ten losing ones. So take some losses and make some mistakes. I’m sure glad I did, because it’s made me a much more confident and competent investor today.
And since everyone always looks around for opinions on the market, I will leave you with one bit of bullish technical insight on our King, Bitcoin. Basic Elliot Wave Theory says that markets move in ebbs and flows – 5 waves in the direction of the trend, followed by 3 waves of correction. And these waves are fractal in nature, meaning that a full 5-wave pattern forms a single larger wave within a higher degree pattern. All that being said, IF Bitcoin’s run up to its ATH in December constitutes a completed 5-wave pattern, we could consider that history as Wave 1 of a larger up-trend. Using Fibonacci extension ratios that appear in all markets (including crypto, very prominently, even with BTC), we can project the likely extensions of the Wave 3 that would come after we’re done correcting here. Based on analysis run by eSignal, a popular trading platform, the length of Wave 3 will likely reach either 1.62, 2.62 or 4.25 times the length of Wave 1. That means our Wave 3 high would take the price of a single Bitcoin to roughly $32,000, $64,000 or $98,000.
Technical analysis is very subjective, this is merely one possible outcome. But ask yourself, if you had the chance to invest in something with global reach that could make a 5x or even 10x return on your investment, what would you risk for that opportunity?
Thanks for taking the time to read, and I hope this helps some of you.
Using Moving Averages to Determine Momentum Moving averages are one of the most popular and commonly used indicators in technical analysis. There are many on-line resources that explain for learning about moving averages. What they do. How they do it. Theories, studies and strategies based on them. Learn the basics about them from Babypips here. Types of Moving Averages
Simple Moving Average (SMA)
Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA)
Linear Weighted Moving Average (LWMA)
Learn more about these in-depth here. Basic Moving Averages Concepts 200 Simple Moving Average. Many traders use moving averages to help to determine the strength of a trend, and the current market momentum. The most commonly used moving average is probably the 200 SMA. Large and small investors alike are liable to have a 200 SMA on their charts. Here are some rules of thumb using the 200 SMA.
When price is trading above the 200 SMA, the market bias is bullish.
When price is trading below the 200 SMA, the market bias is bearish.
When price meets the 200 SMA, it may act as a support/resistance level. (L2A)
Fast Exponential Moving Average Crossovers. Fast EMA crossover systems use faster EMAs. They look for them crossing over each other to signify there in a switch in momentum in the market. Commonly used are the 5 and 8 EMAs (some people prefer to use SMAs). Fast EMA crossovers can help to give early indications of a reversal in price. (Please note, this is very much a trend based strategy and will not do well when the market is ranging) In the example pictured, I have highlighted some of the areas in which we seen EMA crosses and the market reversing shortly thereafter. https://preview.redd.it/639lyinhl6621.png?width=421&format=png&auto=webp&s=a5d3468a3b57c2d490bb75162076b0f59b94f14c This method is also useful for staying in a good trade, waiting until the fast EMAs cross each other before exiting winning positions. Triple (and above) SMA Systems Multiple moving averages can be used together to give you an idea of how strong a trend is and crossovers of muliple moving averages can also be significant. The trend momentum of the recent trend can be show by the spacing of the moving averages relative to each other. If they are well spaced and not all tangled together, we are probably in a strong trending move. https://preview.redd.it/s7qksc5zl6621.png?width=464&format=png&auto=webp&s=488be46d643bb743d6397ca0275523afd87fd301 This image shows how we’d expect to see the moving averages in a strong down-trend. Spaced apart, few touches/crosses. At other times, we will see the moving averages bunched together and tangled, this indicates a messy and range based market. https://preview.redd.it/msxaov7em6621.png?width=508&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8d11061ad3d2dca1976aca8684309f7b0c73204 There are many different combinations of moving average periods used to build up these multiple SMA indicators and it is best to play about with them yourself and see what works for you. For a beginners guide, the combination of the 50, 100 and 200 SMAs can be a good place to start with testing out multiple SMAs. There are many different combinations of moving average periods used to build up these multiple SMA indicators and it is best to play about with them yourself and see what works for you. For a beginners guide, the combination of the 50, 100 and 200 SMAs has been used for a long time by many traders.
Hi y'all! I feel like it's time to become active here. Time to add some value here. I started out in my lovely currency speculation journey at the end of January this year. In the time up to this moment, I joined a "training company" (ended up being another scam network marketing scheme), paid an amount to learn a sub-standard strategy from a crooked "guru" (the experience opened doors for me though), basically locked myself indoors doing some RIGOROUS studying, and made a lot of useful connections via the Telegram app. Oh, and I also dumped HotForex for Tickmill. Totally love their spreads. At this point, I'm quite comfortable with my trading abilities. I learnt a WHOLE LOT about fundamentals. The strategy I'm employing is strictly technical, but I love keeping abreast with the macroeconomic and political bits that actually result in price momentum. Fundies are fun! Speaking of my strategy, I'm really into moving averages: simple, exponential, weighted, etc. Plug in Bollinger Bands aaaaaaaaaand it's a perfect match. It's worth remembering that the Bollinger mid-line is actually a simple moving average set to Period 20 on default settings. I use one type of entry/exit strategy based on the MAs. There's another but it's still being backtested by me. Of course, there's the sub-standard strategy (also based on MAs) taught to me by the "guru". I don't use it anymore, but I still have that SMA80 on my charts just because. 😊 I'm also developing a strategy for trading fundies, but it's still in alpha. Sentimental analysis is a bugger as investors can be very dissociative often, so I'm not keen on trading fundies. I used to ride volatility spikes back in the day, but I've gone beyond that phase. Consistency is the foundation of my trading style. That's about it. I was going to get back into the market, but it's almost close of trading AKA those few hours when the bid-ask spreads go crazy. Forgot to add. My style is scalping, but it's sensible scalping. My strategy isn't suited for intraday trading, though I hold some positions for as long as 3 hours until they hit TP. Swinging and position trades are not my thing, though I'll likely dabble in them in the future. Sooooooooooooooooooo that's it. Remember, there's action from the Fed, ECB, and BoJ ahead this week. The G7 brouhaha and the Trump/Kim summit barely rattled the market, but when central banks cough, you totally want to pay attention. Let's get those pips!!!!1
After 9 months of obsession, here is my open source Node.js framework for backtesting forex trading strategies
TL;DR There's lots more to the story. But the code is all open source now. Have at it. I'm too exhausted to continue with this. If you'd like more details, feel free to message me. If you happen to carry on with this project or use any ideas from it, I would greatly appreciate it if you could keep in touch on your findings. If anyone has any insights, please feel free to comment or message me. I've spent the last nine months working furiously on this. I started a project for backtesting strategies against data I exported from MetaTrader. I had a very powerful computer crunching numbers constantly, trying to find the most optimal configuration of strategy indicator inputs that would results in the highest win rate and profit possible. Eventually, after talking with a data scientist, I realized my backtesting optimizer was suffering from something called overfitting. He then recommend using the k-fold cross-validation technique. So, I modified things (in the "k-fold" forex-backtesting branch), and in fact it provided very optimistic results when backtested against MetaTrader data (60 - 70% win rate for 3 years). However, I had collected 3 months of data from a trading site (by intercepting their Web Socket data), and when I performed validation tests against that data using the k-fold results created from the MetaTrader data, I only got a ~57% win rate or so. In order to break even with Binary Options trading, you need at least a 58% win rate. So in short, the k-fold optimization results produce a good result when validation tested against data exported from MetaTrader, but they do not produce a good result when validation tested against the trading site's data. I have two theories on why this ended up not working with the trading site's data:
The trading site I collected data from uses Reuters data. The prices in the MetaTrader data I used are different from the prices in the the trading site's data. Basically the the trading site's data is offset and is slightly higher than the MetaTrader data (and there may be other differences). I suspect that the k-fold optimization may have produced a predictor that is tailored to the data exported from MetaTrader (data available here), but it does not work as well on the the trading site's data.
The script I used to collect data from the trading site disconnects from the trading site periodically for maybe 10 minutes every, and so when it does, the strategy indicator calculations used when validating against the collected data have to start all over due to gaps, and so potential trades are lost.
For the strategy I use the following indicators: SMA (Simple Moving Average), EMA (Exponential Moving Average), RSI (Relative Strength Index), Stochastic Oscillator, and Polynomial Regression Channel. forex-backtesting has an optimizer which tries hundreds of thousands of combinations of values for each of these indicators, combined, and saves the results to a MongoDB database. It can take days to run depending on how many configurations there are. Basically the strategy tries to detect price reversals and trade with those. So if it "thinks" the price is going to go down within the next five minutes, it places a 5 minutes PUT trade. The Polynomial Regression Channel indicator is the most important indicator; if the price deviates outside the upper or lower value for this indicator (and other indicators meet their criteria for the strategy), then a trade is initiated. The optimizer tries to find the best values for the upper and lower values (standard deviations from the middle regression line). Additionally, I think it might be best to enter trades at the 59th or 00th second of each minute. So I have used minute tick data for backtesting. Also, I apologize that some of the code is messy. I tried to keep it clean but ended up hacking some of it in desperation toward the end :) gulpfile.js is a good place to start as far as figuring out how to use the tools available. Look through the available tasks, and see how various "classes" are used ("classes" in quotes because ES5 doesn't have real class support). The best branches to look at are "k-fold" and "master", and "validation". One word of advice: never, ever create an account with Tradorax. They will call you every other day, provide very bad customer support, hang up the phone on you, and they will make it almost impossible to withdraw your money.
Advice for a new trader - how to determine a good opportunity
Hello everyone. I'm writing this for a friend of mine who wants to start daytrading stocks. My experience is working as charting platform tech support for a forex dealing desk for 5 years but never really trading beyond demo accounts. This is just stuff I've gleaned from that job. All my links are from babypips.com because that's what I'm familiar with. Please chime in if I screwed something up or if you have a comment, a favorite bookmark, or a book that you wish you had when you first started out. His question:
How do you figure out what to buy and when to sell it?
My answer: Unless you understand your own reasons to make a trade, you're just guessing and the odds will not be in your favor. Keep emotion out of your decision making process or it's no better than a casino. The three ways to identify a good market:
technical indicators (charts)
news/sentiment (public emotion/confidence)
fundamental analysis (supply and demand, economic, and political factors)
Indicators are lines drawn on your chart either directly on the price chart or tucked in a subgraph below the chart. There are hundreds of technical indicators that you can learn, but the most common indicators are called Moving Averages, specifically the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to identify trends. See the image below they have highlighted where the SMAs have crossed above and below eachother. Those would've been good times to buy or sell: http://i.imgur.com/AhhG9PX.png
This means actively reading twitter and news and forums and getting a feel for how people feel about the market. If you were interested in investing in Yahoo right now, you would probably find a hostile sentiment because of the terrible new CEO, their recent email hacks and password leaks, and just overall dissatisfaction with every product they offer (news, search, email, etc). With Tesla's new Gigafactory officially pumping out batteries this week, they might be a good target to trade the news with as people finally start to buy and use their product en masse. But keep watching the news because prices will dip if folks start getting into accidents due to a defect.
Understanding things like interest rates, laws that affect the each market, where a company gets its supplies, and deeper events and circumstances that will drive the market. Cause and effect. For example if more governors like Michigan Governor Snyder cut food stamps in half, more families would be buying Great Value than Kraft and Kellogg's. Or would they be buying more Kraft and Kellogg's but less produce? Someone out there knows because that's part of their strategy. I would skim over everything at the bottom of this page: http://www.babypips.com/school Edit:typos
I'm coming at this with years of RO experience, and the advice of friends who play at the top of WoE, PvM, and PvP. I have also been a GM on 3 servers and an admin on one, and asked for advice from two friends who have been admins on their own successful low rate servers. Additionally, I have some experience with editing the source files and redesigning the game a bit, not that I will get much into that, but I do know what is and isn't possible. I also have experience from other games such as WoW (as a world and arena PvPer at the highest levels), and from political and economic games such as EVE and bloc. Finally, I have some real life knowledge of economics (though I wouldn't call myself an economist) due to being a FOREX trader. All of that and more has lead to my understanding of game design, some of which I can apply here. I realize that this is a long post, but that's because I got the input from several people and put (a little bit of) effort into explaining the reasoning. If any of these things are being discussed in other threads, pardon me and just let me dump all of my opinions into one place, as they are largely interconnected. Most of my suggestions are based on sustainable gameplay, sustainable economy, rewarding players for their decisions, and giving players more freedom. I tried to keep the changes, for the most part, quite vanilla. I have some much better ideas that require customization, but most players recoil at the thought of customization in RO. I'll start with the unquestionable and move to the debatable.
No donor or normally unavailable items with unique stats.
This means there should be no items with dex on mid or lower. No upper headgears with more than 3 dex, etc. Basically, no overpowered donor items or ones that disrupt normal player balance. Adding a single dex to a build can be incredibly imbalanced, which is why I used dex as an example, but this applies to lots of stats. Not only can it be imbalanced, but it causes item inflation as well. When players no longer need to hunt for gear (because they replace it with donor or custom quest items), lots of gear becomes either worthless and thus overupgraded to abnormal degrees or obsoleted. On the same token, this means not allowing BG items to be used outside of BGs, including in WoE or anywhere else. It's devastating to the economy. WoE is a competition between guilds, not just to conquer castles, but to acquire enough resources to do it. IMO the only items players should be able to donate for are cosmetic, and perhaps things like battle manuals and maybe bubble gum, which have no direct impact on gameplay other than to reduce the grind. But really, cosmetic items should be enough if you're clever. There's one suggestion on this down in the zeny sink section.
Set strict rules for GMs to follow, and don't give them more power than they need.
First of all, the rules for the players should be plainly laid out. If a player doesn't break a rule, they can't be punished. I have been on servers with no clear rules and arbitrary punishments.
Exploitation should generally be handled by patching the exploit, not punishing the player. The game is full of accepted exploits. If a player happens to abuse one you don't like, you need to at least warn them to stop before punishing them, and ideally just fix the exploit. My entire 30 man guild has been banned from a server without warning for soil farming. Don't be like that.
Each GM should have specific responsibilities, and not overreach them.
GMs should always give the minimum punishment that might remedy a problem. For example, in the case of player harassment, a player should be asked first, human to human, to stop. Then warned. Then a 1 minute mute. Then a 30 min mute, etc. I have seen GMs on servers skip all the steps and go straight to an hour mute or jail or something retarded like that. If you can defuse a situation by respectfully asking a player to stop, that's the best option.
GMs should never punish players for being disrespectful to them. GMs don't deserve respect. No one who is power tripping should be a GM. Again, I say this as a person who has been a GM on 3 servers and an admin on one. GMs should never do anything to players for something the player did to the GM, period. The GM only exists to solve problems in the game and between other players, not to start trouble by existing.
All GM actions should be logged, and ideally an alert system set so that if certain high level GM actions are taken (stat changes, item creation, etc), the admins are notified.
GMs should report and explain every action they take, in a thread in the secret GM-only section on your forums once you make them. They should also be required to post evidence to support decisions to jail or ban players, if they have to poweresponsibility to do such things. It's not that much work, and this is how it worked on Rapture.
If all of that sounds paranoid to you, then you're going to end up with GM problems. Even if you trust your GMs with your life, you need to set guidelines. You can't read their minds, even if they are your best friends. They are going to use their own discretion, and that might vary widely from your own decisions, unless you give them strict guidelines. Not only will this make the GMs better, but it'll give you more confidence in their decisions when players complain, and allow you to handle the inevitable drama better, thus preserving the playerbase. I have seen a GM go on /vg/ and talk shit to the players there, unbeknownst to the admin.
A PvP room where consumables (with the possible exception of conc/awakening/berserk pots) are disabled, and where all buffs are removed upon entering.
The main interest of many other players, is PvP (not GvG/WoE). Unfortunately, PvP is often woefully underrepresented in server design decisions. PvP is incredibly disinteresting when using dex food and potion spamming, and when getting SL/Assump/etc from outside. Leave the consumable spam and buff stacks to WoE and PvM. Also, please don't use a shitty map for the PvP room. You can, of course, have two PvP rooms, so this shouldn't be a controversy. On RaptureRO, there was also a 3v3 PvP arena tournament, which was incredibly fun. Takes some scripting though and isn't top priority.
A draw range of 18+, preferably around 20 to 24.
I'm referring to /conf/battle/client.conf area_size. The default is 14, which is an antiquated value meant to reduce stress on PCs made back in 2000. There are actually mobs that can aggro from outside of your view range, which is quite dumb. There is no reason to use a lower draw range, except for artificial difficulty. Successful servers like Rapture, ProjectRage, Destina, etc, had an increased the draw range without issue. Newer players won't even notice a difference. If you are afraid of client lag in WoE (there shouldn't be any, but just in case) you can simply script an NPC to automatically change the area_size value before and after WoE. It doesn't require a reset of anything, not even an @reloadscript.
Turn up the party exp bonus.
Simple enough, makes it worth leveling as a party instead of leeching yourself with a hunter (the normal method for leveling most things as fast as possible).
Take proactive steps to limit zeny inflation and promote a player-driven economy.
Zeny inflation is one of the biggest problems for the longevity of any RO server. The game was not designed in a way to have a stable economy. You must tweak a few things to get something workable. I'll talk about item inflation a bit later:
Marginally reduce the sell price of some high value drops, such as Witherless Rose. Don't completely destroy the value of certain farming spots. Balance them with others instead. If you ask, you can get opinions on the best spots to farm zeny.
Do not put SP items (grape juice, blue pots, etc) on a vendor; these items need to be sold by players to promote an economy.
Make the healer and warper charge a moderate amount (say, 5k zeny) at level 79+. Do not make it 99 only or players will be incentivized to stop at level 98 (yes, this happens on some servers). You can also make the price of this scale with level instead.
Put an NPC next to the healer NPCs that gives rank 10 Bless/Agi. This one might sound questionable, but any good player will make an acolyte alt just to buff themselves. If you make an NPC to do it instead, you can charge a reasonable cost to eat up zeny.
The warper NPC should give free warps to towns, a moderate charge for dungeons, and a heavy charge for quest-gated dungeons. Say, 2k zeny for normal dungeons, but 50k or 100k for dungeons that require a quest. Giving players an advantage for bothering to clear quests is a good way to allow players to make choices about how they want to level, rather than simply picking the unquestionably best method to do it. If they have to choose whether or not it's worth doing the quest first, then you get players being rewarded for making choices.
Include a stat/skill reset NPC with a moderate yet flat reset cost (say, 1mil to reset both). This allows players to switch builds regularly for PvP, PvM, and WoE, and will promote use of the feature, which will eat up their zeny. Otherwise they'll just make multiple characters of the same job just for different parts of the game, which is obnoxious. The lower the cost, the more people will use it, to a certain point. Try to strike a balance of maximal zeny-wastage, which I think will be around 1mil.
If you do implement a PvP arena, you can add betting to it. Make the betting negative-sum, and you've got an easy zeny sink.
Sell tradeable costume hat boxes for a high price. Basically a box that has a random costume hat inside. The better looking ones should be rarer. Here's a huge list of hats, some of which aren't even on ratemyserver: http://nn.nachtwolke.com/dev/viewlist/ You can also change the drop table of the boxes periodically, so that the hats in the boxes have a limited time availability. Many players will eat that shit up. You can also sell these hat boxes for IRL money to fund the server. You can also have weaker MVPs drop the hat boxes to promote competition over them, which works with the PvP on MVP map idea which I'll discuss in a minute.
Roll out content in waves
It's a suggestion I heard elsewhere and it's a good one. Start with trans disabled and less dungeons available. Gradually release more as the server grows and people hit higher levels. This is a good idea for a few reasons:
Reduces item inflation (antiquated items become useful if they are the only ones available. No one wants a chain if they have a lunakaligo. That's bad.
Reduces player stratification. With less content available, the better players won't be able to skip the leveling phase as easily. e.g. I won't be able to just leech myself in Thor or nameless if the dungeons are still unavailable. Older dungeons have lower exp per hp ratios.
The previous point has the added benefit of allowing newer players (later into the lifetime server) to catch up faster.
Allows for more competition. RO has an exponential growth of power, and by limiting that growth, it keeps players on a more even playing field, economically and otherwise.
Makes a healthier economy. The items that lower level players acquire are more likely to be useful to the higher level players. (e.g. the chain).
Allows for more server longevity by virtue of the fact that you have content to release over time.
Consider splitting the server into a pure-WoE server and a non-WoE server
This might at first sound unappealing by splitting up the playerbase, but it allows you to more easily design both servers to fit their respective playerbases. Also keep in mind that many of the players from each server will play on both servers. Only a minority will be exclusive to one.
You don't need to make any concessions on white/blue pots for the WoE players on the non-WoE server.
The WoE server can include BGs, leaving the non-WoE server blessedly BG-free to focus on world PvP and PvM.
The WoE server can make consumables and gear either easily obtainable through BGs, or for free from NPCs for pure WoE.
You can rebalance certain cards and abilities to fit each server. For example, Incantation Samurai card isn't quite as overpowered outside of WoE.
You can put a short cool down on potions in the non-WoE server (2-10 seconds).
Potion spamming completely trivializes a large portion of the game's content and reduces the skill ceiling dramatically. It reduces the importance of healing abilities, eliminates the need for mana efficiency, imbalances PvP (asura spam is a lot harder when you can't just mash blue pots, for example. The same goes for SinXs and White Smiths with white pots, and so on). In PvP, abilities that are not 1HKOs become nearly worthless, due to white pot spam. This reduces ordinarily incredibly complex jobs like champ, to nothing more than asura-machines. Additionally, no pot spam means that if a champ wants to spam asura in PvM, he needs a Professor. This concept applies to other classes as well. In WoE, potion spamming is necessary to survive. In the rest of the game, though, potion spam ruins much. No WoE means no need for pot spamming. The rest of my suggestions assume that you aren't going with this suggestion, so bear that in mind.
Reduce the number of dialogue windows that common NPCs have. I shouldn't have to talk to a healer to get healed, nor a buffer. When I click on a warper, I should immediately see the options of Town, Dungeon, PvP, etc, not some stupid introductory box. The Kafra NPC has an unnecessary box or two of dialogue before you can get your bank open as well.
Be careful with nodelay. I have played on servers where their nodelay software prevented snipers from using double strafe above about 185 aspd. Don't break the game in an attempt to prevent exploits.
Make white and blue herbs more abundant. The best WoE players have been playing WoE for years and aren't going to grind for hours every day to be prepared for WoE at the end of the week. You can work this into the PvP on MVP maps idea that I'll discuss in a minute, or you can just make the herbs drop from more high level mobs that players will want to kill for other reasons.
Change or nerf MVP cards, or replace them on the drop table with another item entirely. Don't just reduce their drop rate. Making MVP cards incredibly rare does not make them any less broken. In fact, it makes how broken they are even more apparent when it's the only one on the server. A better solution is to change the card to have heavy drawbacks from using it, or designing a cool new effect from scratch (one time we made Osiris card allow you to cast a spell that summoned a zombie minion to fight for you, it was pretty cool). If you want a server that lasts a long time, you WILL eventually have people running around with Thanatos cards, GTB cards, and Ghostring cards. It happens faster than you might expect.
Reduce the respawn timer on some MVPs. Ifrit spawns once every 12 hours, which is a long time on a high pop server. If you're going to enable PvP on MVP maps, then this is an especially viable change. You can reduce drop rates to compensate of course.
Increase the spawn rate of regular mobs on maps except for a few (bio 3), then reduce drop rates, exp rates, and possibly total mob hp to compensate. I know there's a thread about this but I'm just going to dump my thoughts into here. This will A) Increase the difficulty of clearing dungeons and reliance on parties, and B) reduce the tediousness of trying to find mobs to farm on many, many maps. And IMO, AoE farming isn't overpowered in any case compared to alternative single-target farming strategies, so a blanket spawn rate increase is a good idea imo. I would actually be happy to see more AoE farming options.
Keep drop rates generally higher than exp rates. 5x exp and 20x drops (including cards) is more fun than 10x exp and 10x drops imo. I say this because I think it's more interesting when gear is a tool to facilitate leveling, than when leveling is a tool to facilitate farming gear. I can explain that reasoning in more detail if you ask. Also, gear can break when over-upping it, so the inflation is less of a problem. Leveling is also less tedious than farming gear, and can be done while farming gear for that matter.
Reduce the base def on some of the newer gear (think variants, diabolos, new world stuff, orlean's gloves, etc) so that it needs to be over-upgraded to be unquestionably better than older gear. That, or make the stats on the gear scale with upgrades (if possible depending on item). This will largely remove the problem of old gear being hands-down worse than newer gear, and also help alleviate item inflation. Think of it this way: older gear used to become better linearly with exponential increases in investment (due to over-upping), and that regulated item inflation. I.E. you always had a reason to over-up your gear. Contrarily, newer gear tends to be good by virtue of stats inherent to the item, and so players have no need to risk over-upping, and item inflation occurs more rapidly.
PS: Yeah you can't upgrade Orlean's gloves, but it could at least become a decision between +1 dex vs. +2 dex and -1 vit or -1 def, or something, instead of just "yeah these are better than or equal to regular gloves in every way". There's literally no reason to farm gloves because you don't need gloves to farm Orlean's gloves. That's how it works for a lot of older gear, and it's not a good thing. Ideally, newer gear should scale better than older gear, but not be better inherently. You won't be able to do it with everything, but every bit helps to stave off inflation and inevitable server death.
PvP enabled on MVP maps.
This is controversial, but hear me out. I think this can, by itself, increase the longevity of a server dramatically, while solving a plethora of problems as well. MVPs are a scarce resource, and players often compete for them. Normally this leads to a meta of trying to out-grief other players. Instead, with PvP enabled, you could fight for the MVP. It changes the competition into a meaningful part of the game, rather than a rat race. This will be especially important on a high population server. And remember the costume hat idea? Now people can fight for the boxes that low level MVPs drop, creating competition over the usually worthless MVPs, and reason to go out and play the game. Particularly challenging content, like bio3, will be extremely difficult to clear if players are trying to kill you. This will encourage diplomacy and cooperation between players (as seen in sandbox games like EVE, DayZ, etc). Either you work with the other group, or you become rivals. This is good for the health of a server. The increased difficulty will also increase the longevity of the server by reducing the rate at which players clear the content and collect the gear. There's the other added benefit of making it more of a challenge to reach max level in places like Abbey3. You might want to turn on PvP in Thor1 for the same reason. Again, players can choose to work together or make enemies while leveling in these high level zones. And, again, the increased difficulty increases server longevity by reducing the average rate at which players progress. Finally, you can have mobs on PvP maps drop white and blue herb boxes, and spawn on timers. This way, players can compete for the resources they need in WoE, rather than grind for days. You can use regular white/blue herb boxes, or use WoE-only potion drops and have them drop in somewhat higher quantities. The more generalized the drop is, the fewer should drop, to have a smaller impact on the overall economy. Players who don't WoE can simply sell the WoE pots to WoE players, so they have just as much reason to compete for the mobs. Since the WoE players need these resources to win WoE, they'll fight each other for the resources between WoEs, reducing the boredom. It also gives every high level player a thing to look forward to doing: world PvP. Something that pretty much never gets old. Just make sure that the mobs are scarce enough that you don't make it too easy to collect herbs/pots. It's supposed to be a supplementation to normal farming, to make it easier in a fun/competitive way. This change will have no impact on low level players. I have seen this done and it works beautifully. If you're imagining constant fighting between players on every MVP map, you're forgetting that there are dozens of MVP maps. Most maps are usually empty, especially at certain times of day. You will probably need to turn off teleporting and memo on non-dungeon maps to prevent things like champs from running in with asura in relative impunity. As far as players who are disinterested in PvP go, remember that there are instanced dungeons now. There are also dungeons in which it's highly unlikely that you'll run into other players due to quest requirements: Thanatos, Vesper, Ktullanux, probably a few others I'm forgetting. You could just turn PvP off on those maps for that matter. You also have the option of disabling PvP on some other MVP maps if you feel that's necessary.
If you go with my last suggestion, I'd LOVE it if you simply don't include BGs on the server. In my opinion, BGs are a terrible and trivialized bastardization of RO PvP. They're tedious and unfun, and unnecessary when you have world PvP, a PvP room, and WoE. However, if you're going to include BGs, then:
Allow players to choose which team they join, so players can actually play with their friends.
Don't disable skills like body relocate in the BG.
If you don't make whites/blues easier to obtain on the world map: Allow consumables for WoE to be bought with BG badges. I know this is literally 100% contradictory to what I said in the first suggestion, but you need to understand that there is a community of WoE players who have been going server to server for years, WoEing. If you don't add easy ways for these top WoE players to get white/blue pots, they won't play the server, period. So either you need to use my suggestion of making white/blue herbs easier to obtain on the world map (or from PvP zones), or make it so you can get them from BGs, or something else. But the bottom line is that you need to have an easier way than normal to get whites/blues for WoE. This is a consequence of an aging playerbase and is unavoidable. That said, don't make it trivially easy. That destroys the economy. You have to strike a balance, and especially make the resource TRADEABLE.
The exponential moving average (EMA) is a technical chart indicator that tracks the price of an investment (like a stock or commodity) over time. The EMA is a type of weighted moving average (WMA ... Andy’s Exponential Moving Average Scalping Strategy. Ok, so now you know the most important basics about moving averages, specifically about exponential moving averages. Now it’s time to discuss how Andrew uses these EMA lines in order to place scalping trades in Forex. We are not going to go over a step by step tutorial in detail here, because it’s honestly a bit hard to understand with ... double exponential moving average sell setup Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) conclusion. The benefits of incorporating Double Exponential Moving Average in your strategy are numerous. It can make it easier to identify trends and the use of the indicator is no different from using any simple or exponential moving average. 21 and 34 Exponential Moving Average Bounce Forex Trading Strategy provides an opportunity to detect various peculiarities and patterns in price dynamics which are invisible to the naked eye. Based on this information, traders can assume further price movement and adjust this system accordingly. Moving Average Convergence Divergence Trading Strategy . The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram shows the difference between two exponential moving averages (EMA), a 26-period ... 3 Exponential Moving Average Forex Trend Following Strategy is a combination of Metatrader 4 (MT4) indicator (s) and template. The essence of this forex strategy is to transform the accumulated history data and trading signals. 3 Exponential Moving Average Forex Trend Following Strategy provides an opportunity to detect various peculiarities and patterns in price dynamics which are invisible ... The Exponential Moving Average EMA Strategy is a universal trading strategy that works in all markets. This includes stocks, indices, Forex, currencies, and the crypto-currencies market, like the virtual currency Bitcoin. If the exponential moving average strategy works on any type of market, they work for any time frame. In simple terms, you ... Exponential Moving Average Strategy – How to Use the EMA in Forex Trading This is the second article in our EMA series. If you haven’t already we suggest that you check out the first article about the EMA Indicator . 126# 200 EMA Forex Strategy – 127# Moving Averege with Fractal; 128# Quadpips; 129# Forex Catapult; 130# Colt Forex System; 131# Trend FX Strategy; 132# Tunnel Strategy; 133# Moving Average Trios; 134# Trading System, TeKinik CRS100; 135# EWB Forex Strategy; 136# Four Exponential Moving Averages Strategy; 137# Forex indicators Trading system 1 min Scalping with 34 Exponential Moving average channel Free Forex Strategies, Forex indicators, forex resources and free forex forecast. Home Page; Blog ...
Simple, Exponential and Weighted Moving Averages forex trading strategy
3 Simple Moving Average Crossover Forex Trading StrategyTriple EMA Forex Strategy SIMPLE Vs EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGE Simple Moving Averages (SMA) have mor... Simple, Exponential and Weighted Moving Averages forex trading strategy \\\\\ Simple Moving Average The simple moving average (SMA) was prevalent before the emergence of computers because it is ... Exponential moving average trading strategy aka ema video you'll learn how to use this moving average indicator when trading. 📚 Take our FREE courses here: h... 100% Profitable 100&200 Exponential Moving Average crossover Forex Trading Strategy Welcome Friends to 's Biggest Technical Analysis Youtube Channel Our Drea... How to trade best exponential moving average forex trading strategies for beginners How to trade best exponential moving average forex trading strategies for...